The recent fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria marks a new and significant chapter in the geopolitical history of the Middle East. After 13 years of civil war, the collapse of his government has led to a series of repercussions impacting not only the region but also the global balance of power.
Historical Context and Shifts in the Balance of Power
The resilience of Assad's regime was largely supported by Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. However, the current scenario, marked by Russia's focus on the war in Ukraine and the weakening of Iran and its allies, left Assad vulnerable. The HTS (Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham), the leading rebel group in Syria, capitalized on this fragility to consolidate rapid advances and seize control of the capital, Damascus. This outcome also reflects the exhaustion of Assad's military forces, which proved unable to counter the rebels' progress.
Implications for Regional and Global Actors
The fall of Assad's regime brings both gains and losses for various countries and groups:
Russia: As a major ally of Assad, Russia loses a critical strategic position. Its military bases in Syria, crucial for operations in the Mediterranean and Africa, are at risk. Although agreements were signed to maintain these facilities, the political and military instability in Syria compromises their security.
Iran: Iran is considered the biggest loser. Syria was a fundamental piece in its "arc of influence" in the Middle East, serving as a corridor for logistical support to Hezbollah in Lebanon. The rise of a Sunni government unfavorable to Iranian interests significantly diminishes its regional influence.
Turkey: Turkey emerges as one of the biggest winners. Its influence over HTS and its role in the conflict's dynamics are clear, and Assad's regime's collapse strengthens its geopolitical position. However, controlling the Kurds in the region remains a constant challenge.
Israel: While Assad's fall represents a weakening of the Iran-Hezbollah axis, Israel faces uncertainties regarding the emergence of new extremist groups like HTS near its borders. The presence of terrorist organizations in the region demands constant vigilance.
The Role of HTS and Future Challenges
HTS, recognized as a terrorist organization by several powers, presents itself as the new protagonist in Syria. Despite adopting a moderate discourse and promising efficient administration in the regions under its control, its extremist nature and history of alliances with groups like Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State raise global concerns. Promises not to persecute minorities, such as the Alawites, are viewed with skepticism, given the region's history of conflict and massacre.
Prospects for Syria and the Middle East
The situation in Syria remains uncertain. The risk of the country's fragmentation is high, with different groups controlling parts of the territory. This instability creates fertile ground for the resurgence of fundamentalist groups and complicates efforts toward stabilization.
The Middle East as a whole faces a moment of transition. Assad's fall may signify a rebalancing of forces but also opens the door to new conflicts. The evolution of this situation will depend on how the main regional and global actors respond to the changes in the geopolitical landscape.
Professor HOC
Fonte: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iKzZEqZYIgk
Nenhum comentário:
Postar um comentário